HVAC Industry News and Updates: Contractor Briefing

Industry Snapshot: Demand, Electrification and Market Pressures Driving Upgrades

We see three forces shaping HVAC decisions right now: rising adoption of electric equipment and heat pump systems, a wave of retrofit and replacement work, and constraints around supply chains and skilled labor. Heat pump platforms are moving into both residential and commercial applications. Adoption varies by climate and local markets, so fuel choices and timelines look different across regions.

Retrofit and replacement activity is strong because much of the building stock is older, and many upgrades were postponed in recent years. When legacy units fail, owners often choose higher efficiency options rather than like for like swaps. At the same time, material availability and technician capacity influence schedules and pricing. Lead times can stretch, bids can reflect overtime or subcontracting, and coordination becomes as critical as equipment selection. The net effect is simple: electrification momentum is real, but project pacing is set locally by climate, utility landscapes, and who can get the work done. Think of it like traffic after a lane closure, demand keeps coming, but flow slows and costs rise until capacity catches up.

Top Regulatory Changes, Refrigerant Phaseouts and SEER2: What You Need to Comply With

As of January 1, 2023, new central air conditioners and heat pumps are rated under SEER2, EER2 and HSPF2 using the DOE M1 test procedure. The M1 test raises external static pressure to 0.5 in. w.c., which is closer to what most duct systems actually see. Because the test is tougher, SEER2 numbers read lower than legacy SEER for the same unit. Think of it like measuring gas mileage while driving uphill instead of on a track.

Manufacturers have redesigned product lines, and all new equipment sold and installed in the U.S. must carry SEER2 certification. Minimum efficiencies now depend on region and capacity for split-system AC, and heat pumps carry a nationwide baseline roughly equal to 15 SEER and 8.8 HSPF (14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2).

• Northern region: 13.4 SEER2
• Southeast: under 45,000 Btu/h 14.3 SEER2, 45,000 Btu/h and above 13.8 SEER2
• Southwest: SEER2 minimums apply along with added EER2 requirements

Codes and industry guidance increasingly emphasize proper design: ACCA Manual J for loads, Manual S for equipment selection and Manual D for duct design. For heat pumps, sizing to the cooling load and planning supplemental heat improves comfort and defrost performance while aligning with the new test metrics.

Refrigerant policy is shifting toward lower global warming potential refrigerants. That means new refrigerant classes, updated handling practices and attention to safety categories during installation and service, all of which influence equipment choice and long-term support.

New Products & Technology: Heat Pumps, Smart Controls and IoT Enabled Service

Variable speed heat pumps with smart thermostats and connected controls are shifting HVAC from reactive to proactive. With IoT enabled monitoring, systems stream temperatures, pressures and runtime data to secure dashboards. Like a fitness tracker for your home, small trends reveal issues before comfort slips.

In our experience at Budget Heating (BudgetHeating.com), this supports true predictive maintenance: remote diagnostics, alert thresholds and performance optimization without rolling a truck. A drop in airflow can point to a clogged filter, a rising compressor amp draw can flag a weak capacitor, and techs can tune staging and airflow curves from a phone.

It also reshapes business models. Contractors can sell subscriptions focused on uptime, diagnostics and verified efficiency, not just parts and repairs. Install day now includes network setup and control commissioning, then ongoing data checks keep systems steady and efficient.

When HVAC Upgrades Are Not the Best First Step: Tradeoffs, Limits and Common Mistakes

Not every comfort, noise, or bill problem starts with new equipment. In leaky, under insulated homes, swapping systems often leads to larger units that still disappoint. Air sealing and insulation should come first, then a proper load calculation for right sizing. In extreme cold regions where heat must be certain at very low temps, a hybrid dual fuel setup or a high efficiency furnace as backup can be a better first investment. If odors, humidity, or stale air are the main complaints, targeted ventilation and IAQ solutions usually outperform a full replacement.

• Bigger is better: false. Oversizing causes short cycling, poor humidity control, and more wear.
• Filters last a year: many systems need changes every 1 to 3 months.
• Closing supply vents saves energy: it raises static pressure and hurts performance.
• Heat pumps fail in cold climates: modern models work efficiently, but plan for supplemental heat and proper controls.
• Maintenance is optional: skipping it raises lifecycle costs. Duct cleaning is only needed with visible contamination.
• Annual refrigerant top offs: a sealed system should not need them. Repeats signal a leak that must be fixed.
• Thermostat myths: cranking does not heat or cool faster. Set and forget can waste energy. Ceiling fans cool people, not rooms.

Residential HVAC Trends: Replacement Cycles, Zoning and Climate Smart Choices

Replacement cycles are shifting from waiting for failure to strategic upgrades. We see homeowners pairing new systems with comfort and noise goals, guided first by climate. Identify your climate type, hot humid, hot dry, mixed, or cold, then decide whether cooling or heating performance leads. This also determines which ratings matter. Many older units were low SEER, while modern baselines sit around SEER 14 to 15 and premium models reach roughly SEER 18 to 25, so a changeout often resets efficiency rather than a like for like swap.

Zoning, multi split strategies, and variable speed equipment are trending for multi story homes, balancing uneven loads and reducing sound. In mixed or humid regions, plan humidity control up front, dedicated dehumidification modes or reheat, so summer comfort does not depend on overcooling. Right sizing is critical, like picking shoes for the terrain, and envelope work, sealing ducts, air sealing, and insulation, multiplies the benefits.

Maintenance & Service Best Practices to Cut Callbacks and Extend Equipment Life

Planned maintenance beats crisis repairs every time. Preventive and reliability centered routines, and even predictive strategies, lower lifecycle costs, reduce failures, and keep comfort steady. Clean filters and coils, sealed ducts, correct refrigerant charge, and calibrated controls improve efficiency, comfort, and indoor air quality while easing stress on major components.

In our experience at Budget Heating (BudgetHeating.com), the following priorities consistently cut callbacks and preserve warranties:

• Homeowner safe basics: replace filters every 1 to 3 months, gently rinse outdoor coils, keep registers and outdoor units clear, change thermostat batteries, and pour a little vinegar in the condensate line. Always shut off power first.
• Pro only work: electrical troubleshooting, refrigerant circuit service, combustion checks, major internal cleaning, and any system alterations. These require licensed HVAC technicians with EPA 608 and compliance with local codes.
• Service cadence: schedule at least one professional tune up yearly. Heat pumps benefit from two seasonal visits to verify safety and performance.
• What techs should document: coil condition, airflow, electrical connections, belts, condensate drainage, refrigerant charge, duct sealing and balancing, and control calibration. Proper balancing and commissioning reduce dust, hot and cold spots, and improve humidity control.
• Benefits: fewer emergency calls and overtime charges, longer equipment life, better comfort and IAQ, and warranty support through documented service.
• Safety first: never bypass safety switches or open refrigerant circuits. Use CO detection and call immediately for combustion concerns.
• Know the warning signs: new noises, coil icing, water leaks, or short cycling mean call a licensed technician.

How Much Does a New HVAC System and Installation Cost? Understanding Payback, Incentives and Regional Factors

Energy savings drive payback. Many older systems run at SEER 8 to 10, while modern baseline is SEER 14 to 15 and premium can reach SEER 18 to 25. A 10 SEER to 16 SEER upgrade can cut cooling electricity by about 38 percent. Actual payback depends on price differences, local electric or gas rates, climate run hours, your home’s envelope, and rebates or incentives.

Incentives from federal, state and utility programs can accelerate ROI, but most require SEER2/HSPF2 certified equipment and documented installation. In our experience at Budget Heating (BudgetHeating.com), submitting clean commissioning records often makes or breaks eligibility.

Protect total cost of ownership with documentation and design rigor:

• Written proposals with specific model numbers, SEER2/HSPF ratings, Manual J/S/D outputs, planned duct modifications, and humidity or ventilation plans.
• Commissioning plan: duct leakage test, airflow measurements, and refrigerant charge verification. Confirm who handles permits and warranty paperwork.
• Ductwork: inspect, seal and insulate in unconditioned spaces. Verify return paths and proper sizing to prevent airflow losses.
• Controls: choose thermostats that stage supplemental heat so backup only engages when needed. Confirm control wiring and C-wire availability.
• Contractor vetting: verify licensing, insurance, and local code familiarity.

Maintenance strategy affects lifetime cost. Preventive programs typically lower total costs by about 8 to 12 percent versus reactive repairs. Reliability centered plans can deliver about 30 to 40 percent savings. Predictive maintenance adds another 8 to 12 percent and reduces breakdowns. Think of it like dental cleanings versus root canals.

Indoor Air Quality Advances: Filtration, Ventilation and Practical IAQ Upgrades

Post COVID, we continue to see strong interest in better filtration, ventilation upgrades and supplemental IAQ technologies. The key is integration. IAQ additions must be coordinated with system airflow, controls and ductwork to avoid unintended pressure or humidity side effects. Think of the filter as a gate in the air path: the tighter it is, the more it can slow traffic if the opening is not sized correctly.

Practical steps that work in the field: plan humidity control strategies, choose filters that balance MERV performance with acceptable pressure drop, and consider dedicated dehumidification where needed. Ventilation strategies should be matched to the equipment’s capabilities and control logic so airflow is stable and indoor moisture stays in check. Done correctly, these upgrades support comfort and efficiency, and they pair well with routine filter and coil maintenance without reworking the entire system.